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Friday, August 15, 2008

Approximate valuation approaches

Average growth approximation: Assuming that two stocks have the same earnings growth, the one with a lower P/E is a better value. The P/E method is perhaps the most commonly used valuation method in the stock brokerage industry. By using comparison firms, a target price/earnings (or P/E) ratio is selected for the company, and then the future earnings of the company are estimated. The valuation's fair price is simply estimated earnings times target P/E. This model is essentially the same model as Gordon's model, if k-g is estimated as the dividend payout ratio (D/E) divided by the target P/E ratio.

Constant growth approximation: The Gordon model or Gordon's growth is the best known of a class of discounted dividend models. It assumes that dividends will increase at a constant growth rate (less than the discount rate) forever. The valuation is given by the formula:


P = D\cdot\sum_{i=1}^{\infty}\left(\frac{1+g}{1+k}\right)^{i} = D\cdot\frac{1+g}{k-g}


and the following table defines each symbol:

Symbol Meaning Units
\ P \ estimated stock price $ or € or £
\ D \ last dividend paid $ or € or £
\ k \ discount rate %
\ g the growth rate of the dividends %

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